Spencer MacColl — Founder

Helping funders make better
investment decisions
under uncertainty.

Combining predictive impact analytics, decision frameworks, and learning systems to ground funding decisions in evidence, explicit assumptions, and clear tradeoffs, not intuition alone.

Where most funders get stuck

Strong on what and who.
Weaker where it matters most.

Most funders can clearly define what they fund and who they aim to reach. The harder questions, how much change actually occurs, and whether it would have happened anyway, remain largely unaddressed.

This is where I focus. Bringing structured, evidence-informed estimation into the decisions that matter most, while maintaining intellectual honesty about what the evidence can and cannot support.

Typically strong
  • Defining what is funded
  • Identifying who is reached
  • Tracking outputs and activities
Where I focus
  • Depth — How much change actually occurs
  • Counterfactual contribution — Would it have happened anyway
  • Risk & uncertainty — What has to be true for this to hold
  • Comparability & tradeoffs — Which investments deliver greater impact per dollar

How I Support Decisions

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Why this work matters

This work is ultimately about improving how capital is allocated, so that funding decisions are more likely to produce meaningful, measurable improvements in people's lives.

Better decisions. · Faster learning. · Clearer tradeoffs.

Decision-relevant rigor

Use the best available data and benchmarks. Make assumptions explicit. Quantify where it improves decision-making. Avoid false precision where evidence is weak.

Numbers inform judgement

Analytics are one part of decision systems that must also account for population priorities, equity considerations, and implementation risk.

Honest about uncertainty

The goal is not perfect measurement. It is better decisions, faster learning, and clearer tradeoffs, with transparent assumptions at every step.

Ready to bring decision-relevant rigor
to how capital is allocated?

Work with Spencer